As the group stage nears its end, the fight for the top 4 spots is becoming more and more interesting. Pakistan currently stands at 6th place with just one point away from the number 4 spot.
India, New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are fighting for the remaining three semi-final berths, and the tournament is currently wide open.
Here are the key remaining matches which are going to decide the fate of the teams:
- India to play England, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka
- England to play India and New Zealand
- Bangladesh to play India and Pakistan
- Sri Lanka to play South Africa, West Indies, and India
- Pakistan to play Afghanistan and Bangladesh
- New Zealand to play Australia and England
Both India and New Zealand are currently at 11 points each and a win or even a draw will most likely put them through. However, the Kiwis are up against England and Australia in their remaining two matches, which may yet spring a surprise or two for their fans.
India is unbeaten until now and they have three matches left to secure the top 4 berths. It will be a matter of where they finish in the top 4 rather than whether they will end up there.
Without further ado, let’s have a look at how Pakistan can and cannot qualify for the semis.
Currently, there are two ways Pakistan can make it to the top 4.
The first one is that Pakistan wins both matches and Bangladesh, England and Sri Lanka lose one of their remaining matches. It would mean that Pakistan will finish ahead of these teams with 11 points, finishing fourth on the points table.
The second scenario is that Pakistan wins one of the matches and England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka lose two of their matches. Even if Bangladesh wins just one match with an inferior net run rate than Pakistan, Sarfaraz’s men will book their semi-finals ticket.
Chances of Pakistan Not Qualifying for Semi-Finals
Even if Pakistan wins the remainder of matches and ends up on 11 points, even then there’s no guarantee of a semi-finals berth. There are two scenarios for that case as well:
- If England wins their two matches, New Zealand wins one of their matches and India wins two, the three will cement their places in top 4.
- The other case would be that if Sri Lanka wins all of their matches and India and New Zealand win two and one matches respectively, the three teams will end up in top 4.
So, first things first, Pakistan needs to win the remaining two matches before we jump to any conclusions. Until then, the tournament promises plenty of excitement.
Note: These scenarios do not take into account washed out matches. The scenarios would change significantly in case of rain in any of these key games.